Kell Brook is a man with every right to be walking around with a chip on his shoulder the size of your average mountain. Undefeated in 36 outings as a pro, 25 wins by way of KO, current holder of the IBF welterweight title, yet still he doesn't get the respect this litany of achievement deserves. Even after winning the world title he has been treated with disdain by potential opponents such as Amir Khan, who hasn't had a belt round his waist since 2012, and has failed to land the big name fights and paydays he should have way before now.
Almost as soon as the Golovkin fight was announced by Matchroom's Eddie Hearn in a deft piece of business that succeeded in leaving Chris Eubank Sr looking out of his depth in the business end of the game, an ironclad consensus among most boxing writers, pundits, and former and current fighters, was forged. Brook deserves credit for taking the fight but he doesn't stand a chance against the beast that is Gennady Glolovkin, this consensus has it, a natural middleweight with outrageous power who in 35 fights with 32 KOs has yet to be troubled, much less exposed, by anyone he's shared the ring with. The idea that Kell Brook, a welterweight, can climb the mountain involved in carrying his power with him up two weight divisions, only to then climb the other even higher mountain invovled in defeating the pound for pound unified middleweight champion, a guy who goes through his opponents one after the other like a man in a hurry to be somewhere else, is a non-starter it's so unlikely.
However this is an analysis that begins with the mistaken assumption that boxing is a sport where the difference between victory and defeat is a product of stats rather than ring craft, speed, and movement. Don't believe me? Just cast your mind back to when Leonard came out of retirement to face the Gennady Golovkin of his era, Marvellous Marvin Hagler, in 1987.
Hagler with good reason was clear favourite going into this middleweight clash in Las Vegas. Leonard hadn't fought in three years and this would be only his second bout in five years, having retired in 1982 before returning in 1984 for one fight and then retiring again. Moroeover, in his last fight he'd looked less than impressive against an opponent, Kevin Howard, who was levels below Hagler. Then there was the fact that Sugar Ray had never boxed at middleweight before, only light middleweight and welterweight.
Hagler on the other hand hadn't tasted defeat in 11 years and even though 33 he still appeared unstoppable - tough, aggressive, superfit, hungry and with power in both hands. Nonetheless, Leonard saw weaknesses while ringside at Hagler's fight against John 'The Beast' Mugabe in March 1986, who for much of the fight was able to outbox Hagler.
The key to Leonard being able to win what has gone down as one of the greatest comeback fights in the history of boxing was the way he used Hagler's aggression against him, utilising a gameplan which consisted of making Hagler miss and countering with short bursts of fast combinations and neat footwork to move out of the pocket before his opponent was able to get anything off. In refusing to war with Hagler, Leonard succeeded in frustrating him, to the point where the hitherto undefeated middleweight champion was reduced to following him round the ring like a bull chasing a matador, leaving himself open in the process.
Though Kell Brook cannot lay claim to the mantle of Sugar Ray Leonard (at least not yet), neither can Golovkin claim parity with Hagler given the names on his record. Indeed, Kell Brook is undoubtedly the best and most skilled boxer that GGG has faced, an excellent combination puncher with superb ring awareness and the ability to make adjustments. What he and his trainer, Dominic Ingle, will not make the mistake of doing is wasting energy moving round the ring in order to stay out of range, as Khan did against Canelo. This is especially vital given that Golovkin is frighteningly efficient when it comes to cutting off the ring, redolent of a young Mike Tyson as he stalks his opponents and denies them a moment's respite. Instead Brook, like Leonard, will have to get his shots off and move out of the pocket, utilising angles and constant head movement to deny his opponent the opportunity to land anything clean. Brook certainly wants to avoid finding himself on the ropes, which was the mistake Martin Murray made when he faced GGG. This is a fighter with such freakish power that even aborbing punches to the arms, shoulders and less vulnerable parts of the body is to have the fight bludgeoned out of you. Neither Brook nor Golovkin are known as speed merchants, but both compensate with superb timing and footwork, the ability to measure distance down to the last millimetre. In a fight of this magnitude those millimetres could be the difference between winning and losing.
Another performance worth weighing in favour of Brook's chances is Joe Calzaghe's against Jeff Lacy in 2006. Many expected the Welshman to lose his undefeated record against the American, who possessed considerable size and power, but Calzaghe proceeded to nullify that size and power by constantly changing the angle, throwing fast combinations before stepping off, constantly pivoting to his left to change the angle.
Kell Brook has good reason to feel confident going into this fight. His struggles and travails when it came to making 147 are well known. For a fighter to have that particular battle removed is a massive advantage, both physically and psychologically. It means he can prepare on a full tank, a factor that will tell most in sparring where it counts. Yet for all that the one unanswered question that will determine Brook's ability to shock the world is whether he has the power to hurt Golovkin. If he can do what no other GGG opponent has done in 35 fights and force him back then we're in for one hell of a battle. If not, if like all the others the Kazakh is able to walk through Brook's shots then it will only be a matter of time before he records yet another victory by stoppage.
This one unanswered question is why it would be foolish to predict with any degree of surety that Kell Brook will defeat Gennady Golovkin when they meet at London's O2. If he does it will be an achievement of historic merit, up there with a young 22-year-old Cassius Clay's stunning victory over Sonny Liston in Miami in 1964.
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